Spurious Regression

Regressing I(d) processes is fraught with danger of mis-specification and nonsense estimates. We often see analyst reports where a stock is being regressed with a composite index to find the beta of the stock OR two stocks are regressed to find the relative beta etc . If one looks at those numbers closely from a stats perspective, most of the estimates are complete non sense. Most often , knowingly or unknowingly , one tends to apply regression amongst non stationary series and then tries to use the estimate as though the regression has been done on stationary series.

Taleb on Robustness

Via I Spent The Night With Nassim Taleb : Taleb : “Paul Krugman is a danger to society!” “He uses the wrong mathematics, that’s how I knew he was a fluke.”

Clive & Rob on Nobel Prize

Rob Engle and Clive Granger discuss about the importance of good ideas for doing productive work. Some thoughts from Engle’s talk : To see what is in front of one’s nose requires a constant struggle To select well among old things is almost equal to inventing new things The universe is full of magical things, patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper

Quote for the day

Via Leo Babauta You can’t change your entire life. You can only change your next action. — You can’t change a relationship with a loved one. You can only change your next interaction. — You can’t change your entire job. You can only change your next task. — You can’t change your body composition. You can only change your next meal. — You can’t change your fitness level. You can only start moving.

Joy 24 x 7

My Yoga teacher suggested me to go through some talks by Sadhguru and particularly on Isha Yoga and Isha Foundation. Some of the videos are available on the internet Well, as usual I was pretty sceptical about the so called guru culture and the kind of double lives that they lead, as portrayed by the media. Till Date I had never heard of Sadhguru and only because my teacher asked me to read about him / listen to him, I tried looking him up on the net.